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View Poll Results: Should the UK remain a part of Europe?

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  • Yes, the UK should remain part of Europe

    5 7.35%
  • No, the UK should not remain part of Europe

    29 42.65%
  • The UK should remain part of Europe but it should re-negotiate it's relationship

    34 50.00%
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Thread: Should the UK remain in Europe

  1. #21
    Florida Expert Sniff's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snapper View Post
    I don't claim to be an economist but I thought that happened because the debt would be denominated in Greece's currency, Drachma say?

    So a hotel in Greece might currently offer a room for, say, 25,000 Drachma; and for want of any other figures, let's say that 20% of that eventually trickles back to the government in taxes. If the exchange rate against the Euro was EUR 1 = GRD 250, for someone from Europe booking that hotel room it would cost them around EUR 100. The Greek government would net 5,000 Drachma from this. That's either 5,000 Drachma or 20 Euros. If their debt is denominated in Drachma, they can repay 5,000 Drachma.

    If Greece then inflated its currency by, say, 25%, in theory that same hotel room will cost GRD 31,250 and at the same time the exchange rate will fall to EUR 1 = GRD 312.5. Someone from Europe booking that hotel room will still pay EUR 100 for it because of the fall in the exchange rate. The Greek government would now net 20% of GRD 31,250 = GRD 6,250. So they can now afford to repay 6,250 Drachma.

    This wouldn't address any structural problems the country might have (black market trade, size of public/government organisations, social security, etc.) so it's never going to be a permanent fix. But it could put a plaster on things for a while.

    It's interesting stuff though Keith. I think we are in for a few interesting years, especially with the outcome of last night's agreement. If I might quote directly from the Beeb's website:

    But perhaps most significant was eurozone leaders' announcement that there will be tougher controls in future on the budgets of member countries, integration of taxation, and a whole new framework for running the eurozone, including a new leadership structure which will rival the decision-making mechanism of the wider European Union.

    The Europe five years from now might be quite a different beast from the Europe of today.
    Well, my response to your proposal would be that the Greek repayment to the banks would then be worth 25% less than previously, so I'm not convinced the banks would accept that. In my view they are far too clever to accept a large debt nominated in a currency that was already weak, and likely to be devalued. More likely they would specify an internationally accepted currency such as the US dollar. But I'm not an economist either, just a concerned observer :-)

    I certainly agree that if the EU/Euro survives this crisis (and I'm not 100% convinced it will) then the Europe that emerges will be a totally different place than it is today. Germany specifically would prefer a Europe fiscally controlled by the ECB, in which they have a huge say of course. I'm not sure that the rest of the European countries would accept that.

    As you say, interesting stuff!
    Last edited by Sniff; 27-10-2011 at 10:46.
    Keith


  2. #22
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    Iceland has been managing since they defaulted and went bankrupt, the same as Argentina did many many years ago. Did either of these countries have bailouts from the EU, or have a stranglehold over their OWN affairs. I am aware many countries had to take a hit on the default, but this is no different to Greek debt. If Greece did not have cheap European money to borrow over the past 15 years which was thrown at them, they would have balanced the books, just like they did for thousands of year before the EU came along. They went along on the credit bubble just like everyone else. If they were not tied to the EU, and you can't get away from that fact, they would be able to manage their OWN affairs as they see fit and it would be the same for any other country had this happened. The Greek people have never been asked about this big social project, the politicians of all countries just plough ahead regardless of what, we the people want. Isn’t democracy what the people of Europe have enjoyed for centuries?

    I work in London so I can see the effect it has on the financial services industry already, it churns out directives day after day, saying what we can’t or can do. There is a current court case in which the UK government has taken the Commission to court over our clearing houses. London has one of the biggest clearing houses in Europe and the EU wants to relocate that outside of the UK. That will cost the UK economy dearly in terms of loss of jobs and revenue to London. The UK relies heavily on revenue from the financial services sector, so that would a huge loss to the UK. I don’t think the EU will be happy until it’s one mass of people who have no identity and who are all sharing the same set of rules. I don’t want that and I don’t want that for my children. What next, that set of rules expanded to everywhere else in the world. Our car insurance has increased because the EU says everyone has to be treated the same, even though for many years women have had cheaper insurance because the statistics shows they are a lower risk but the EU says we can’t do that, so we have to abide by what they say.

    I have already made up my mind and I can see from everyday events that the EU is not a good idea, greater fiscal and monetary control is not a good thing as clearly their sticking plaster is not working. It’s a grand social project gone horribly wrong, and it’s already down a slippery road and I will never vote nothing other than no. Everyone is entitled to vote how they wish but for myself and my family, it’s no. My parents voted for a free trade agreement, not total control.
    Jan&Steve


  3. #23
    Florida Expert Sniff's Avatar
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    Well everyone has their own viewpoint based on personal experience, and that's as it should be. I'm clearly not going to be able to convince anyone so there's little point continuing this discussion :-)

    But it's interesting to note that almost 59% of people who voted on this poll want to remain within the EU in some form or another, mostly after renegotiation. I'm surprised and encouraged that the figure is that high.

    In any case there should be a referendum so the UK tax payers (including me) can have their say. If there is a referendum, and there is a decision to pull out of the EU, I sincerely hope you get the utopia you're looking for.
    Keith


  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by taylona View Post
    Until those that are responsible for the subscription to this club explain the pros and cons more fully the UK will question our membership... - something I don't think I've ever had.
    That is spot on.

    Economists disagree - even those without vested interests!

    Politicians disagree - well they would, wouldn't they!

    What hope is there of us laymen getting objective unbiased information?


    Instead we have emotive, and often illogical views expressed - "We won the war and those b&)**) Froggies and Krauts better remember that"
    Last edited by Robert5988; 27-10-2011 at 17:02.


  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sniff View Post
    Well, my response to your proposal would be that the Greek repayment to the banks would then be worth 25% less than previously, so I'm not convinced the banks would accept that. In my view they are far too clever to accept a large debt nominated in a currency that was already weak, and likely to be devalued. More likely they would specify an internationally accepted currency such as the US dollar. But I'm not an economist either, just a concerned observer :-)
    It's not worth any less though in the same currency. Typically I think most government borrowing happens in their local currency.

    It's maybe better to think of Sterling as a better example with the Drachma no longer existing. When the UK government wants to borrow money they issue Sterling denominated bonds. The organisations that buy these bonds will be mostly GBP based - pension funds are typical, unit trusts, etc. As long as the government makes their repayments at the quoted rate of interest, whoever bought the bonds are typically happy. This is usually because they have a Sterling liability somewhere down the line. So as long as everything stays in-currency they don't really care what happens to Sterling against other currencies.

    Loans from banks would be much the same. If they could keep everything in the same currency they're happy. If a foreign bank wanted to take an interest in a GBP government bond they'd likely just buy or sell currency futures to hedge out any currency risk.

    Where this all went wrong for Greece is that they are using a currency that they have no control over, and which might (or rather was) operated in a way that was not consistent for the stability of the Greek economy.

    Which is why it seems that one thrust of last night's agreement is going to be to tie Euro member states together much more closely in terms of fiscal policy. It will be interesting to see if this can be made to work as i) I'm not convinced that countries necessarily like other countries telling them what to do, and ii) Just because a government says it will do something does not necessarily mean that it will.
    Steve



  6. #26
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    All these theories on Fiscal policy - this is how it works in Ireland!

    What is a Financial Bail-Out ?

    It is a slow day in a damp little Irish town. The rain is beating down
    harshly, and all the streets are deserted. Times are tough, everybody
    is in debt and everybody lives on credit.

    ...On this particular day a rich German tourist is driving through the
    town, stops at the local hotel and lays a €100 note on the desk, telling
    the hotel owner he wants to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to pick
    one to spend the night.

    The owner gives him some room-keys and, as soon as the visitor has
    walked upstairs, the hotelier grabs the €100 note and runs next door to pay his
    debt to the butcher.

    The butcher takes the €100 note and rushes down the street to repay his
    debt to the pig farmer. The pig farmer takes the €100 note and heads
    off to pay his bill at the supplier of animal feed and fuel.

    The guy at the Farmers' Co-op takes the €100 note and runs to pay his
    drinks bill at the friendly neighbourhood pub. The pub owner slips the
    money along to the local prostitute drinking at the bar - who, in spite of
    facing hard times, has always gladly offered him her ‘services’ on credit.

    The hooker then rushes over to the hotel and pays off her room bill to
    the hotel owner with the €100 note.

    The hotel proprietor quietly replaces the €100 note back on the
    counter, so that the rich traveller will not suspect anything.

    At that moment the traveller comes down the stairs, states that none of
    the rooms are satisfactory, picks up the €100 note, pockets it and leaves
    town.

    ...No one has produced anything. No one has earned anything. However,
    the whole town is now out of debt and looking to the future with a lot more
    optimism.

    And that, dear ladies and gentlemen, is how a basic financial bailout
    package works !


  7. #27
    wrpac00
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sniff View Post
    You need to distinguish between a political soundbite from a president fighting for support for unpopular policies, that is aimed primarily at a sceptical domestic electorate, and the national sentiments of millions of people. Honestly, if you truly believe that the French hate the English then I feel sorry for you.

    I go to France regularly, at least a couple of times a month - half of the company I work for is based in Nice, and I deal with French people every single day. My company is hugely multi-cultural - I live and work daily next to Germans, French, Italian, Spanish, Portuguese, Dutch, Czech, Hungarian, Russian, American, Canadian - 47 different nationalties at the last count. And none of them hate the English. This blinkered viewpoint is fostered by a xenophobic English tabloid press that is working to its own political agenda. No one in Europe can muster enough energy to even care one way or another about the UK, let alone hate them - they are too busy trying to manage their own lives to worry about the UK.
    I think you need to get back in touch with reality. The whole of Europe hates us, the Eurovision song contest is a great example of that. We could enter a song that would sell 4 million records and we would still be voted at the bottom.


  8. #28
    Florida Expert msmiff's Avatar
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    Regret I've come to a slightly differing conclusion: The French just hate anyone not French !!! [msnsmile]
    For many years I worked for a Belgian multinational & attended regular training courses in Belgium - always taken in English, though attended by folks of many nationalities.
    The only nationals to ever object were French, who insisted in changing the setup language of any computer equipment thay could get their hands on into French & then sulking or walking out when everything was reset to english for the benefit of everyone else !!!
    The general reaction of every other nationality was to shrug shoulders "They're French......"
    (Sorry to any & all Francophiles hereabouts)
    I should also explain that this was in Antwerp - not Brussels where French is the 'in' language !!!!


  9. #29
    Super Moderator florida4sun's Avatar
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    Utter nonsense, I deal with pretty much the whole of Europe, booking musicians for tours and touring myself. Most artists steer clear of the UK as they are grated so badly in comparison with Europe. The French/Germans and the rst adore the talent we have, treat them well and we pome them with open arms. Not once have I or the english artists I deal with had any negativity, quite the opposite. Treated like kings and queens, very unlike touring the UK.
    The only negativity I hear is from Brits, saying Europe hates us. It simply is not true and is a myth. That's based on hard experience. Common Paul you cannot base it on the Eurovision, they have had years of Wotan taking the piss and the whole thing is a joke.

    Quote Originally Posted by wrpac00 View Post
    I think you need to get back in touch with reality. The whole of Europe hates us, the Eurovision song contest is a great example of that. We could enter a song that would sell 4 million records and we would still be voted at the bottom.


  10. #30
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    We were in Belgium this weekend at the Menin Gate and were speaking to lots of different nationalities and did not encounter any problems at all - everyone was very friendly even when speaking to a French person and I had to ask them to slow down as they were talking to fast for me to catch all they were saying. Perhaps talking back to them in slower French helped but the Flemish speakers (which is where Leper is) were more than happy to speak in English as my Flemish is very restricted mainly to how to get around and what to order off a menu. Our youngest has been working in Germany since August as part of his PhD and he has said he has not had any problems either and found the Germans very helpful and kind.


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