Flight price...OMG!

[BIGEYE]

As you all know I have been keeping an eye on flight prices with BA over the last twelve months, and have also been looking ahead for prices for next year. The flight prices for my intended dates of travel for next year have been coming in at about £282 each way, and just before the increase in APD, the price increased to £283 each way.
Now with the increase in APD, this should have bumped the price up by an extra £15.
Going on todays prices, outbound is now £305 and the return is £434. Can anyone explain where BA has got these obscene prices from? I was hoping to book almost a year in advance as this seems to be the cheapest time to book apart from around a week before Christmas, should I wait until then?

[phaedra]

No idea about BAs prices but I've been watching prices go up and down for the last couple of months, just booked 3 weeks ahead with Virgin [xx(] for Nov.24th to Dec.8th at £413 from Manchester which was as cheap as I could find.

I never book more than about a month in advance unless there are some stupidly good deals on I usually book 2 to 3 weeks in advance and get decent prices.

[BIGEYE]

Surely that too is a gamble, as seats may not be available for the date you require.

[Tonish]

There is no predicting air fares. Beyond the obvious factors such as the (disgraceful) increase at school holiday time, or the industry-wide "sales" periods which are reasonably predictable, there are a myriad of factors built into the average seat price. Presumably currency fluctuations, their fuel hedging positions, rate of sales, predicted demand, margin plus goodness knows what else will all be built into the pricing model, all fluctuate constantly and each will have its own impact on the price you see on the screen. At least I assume that's the case. I earn my crust in structured derivatives, which is seen by some as complex, but air fares leave me baffled, I've never managed to figure them out. Your graph was interesting, I suspect if you changed the scale, overlaid it with fuel prices and exchange rates and possibly the yield curve you might see some correlations, but I assume they're buying options/futures so even doing that probably wouldn't give you much insight.

Having said that, I could be completely wrong and they just charge whatever they reckon they can get away with and hope for the best. It certainly feels like that.

[BIGEYE]

I think the UK airlines chance their mit, and put the price up slowly until they find the bitting point where sales drop off, then they back off on the prices. Yes fuel prices, exchange rates, etc. all have an impact on the price we pay, but a seat is only worth what someone will pay for it. The airlines have enough market data on sales figures from week-to-week & month-to-month from which to compare.
When you look at the cost of the fares, about 40% of the price we pay is taxes which may be outwith the control of the airlines. However, the airline will be conscious of how much Joe Public will pay for his seat, and will forever push towards this mark.

[sammibabe]

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by phaedra
No idea about BAs prices but I've been watching prices go up and down for the last couple of months, just booked 3 weeks ahead with Virgin [xx(] for Nov.24th to Dec.8th at £413 from Manchester which was as cheap as I could find.

I never book more than about a month in advance unless there are some stupidly good deals on I usually book 2 to 3 weeks in advance and get decent prices.
[/quote]

Something we plan to do when we are going on our own but with 5 of us and set dates when we can travel do not feel it as option at the moment so we are stuck with ridiculous prices (or not go [msncry])

[Katys Grandad]

The other big factor is route competition. Currency rates, fuel charges and the rest certainly have an impact but they don't account for the fact that it's always much cheaper to fly to, say, New York than to Orlando.

In this case, there is a multiplied impact because it includes a BA flight from Edinburgh. The fact is that people outside SE England will pay these fares because they don't have much option, so BA have absolutely no reason to bring them down.

[phaedra]

I can't even consider BA from Newcastle, they pulled the Gatwick service a year or two ago leaving only Heathrow, and there is no way I would consider getting from Heathrow to Gatwick and back with my mobility problems, an Autistic 6'3" 20yr old and our luggage! [msnsad]

Getting the train from Durham to Manchester Airport is our simplest option outside of the May-Oct charter flight season, I've even driven to East Midlands once as the price was just too good to refuse, £296.00 each for First Choice Premier