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Thread: bye bye FRANCES hello IVAN

  1. #1
    Florida Chatterbox
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    bye bye FRANCES hello IVAN

    The eastern Caribbean island of Barbados was under a storm alert as powerful Hurricane Ivan raced across the Atlantic Ocean toward the Caribbean on Sunday.
    Ivan, the ninth tropical cyclone of the Atlantic hurricane season and the fourth major hurricane, had 125-mph winds and could gain more strength, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

    At 5 p.m. EDT, the center of Ivan was 820 miles east-southeast of Barbados at latitude 10.4 north and longitude 47.7 west, the hurricane center said. It was moving to the west-northwest at about 21 mph.

    The hurricane center's long-range forecast, which has a large margin of error, had the storm crossing the Lesser Antilles near Barbados on Tuesday afternoon and hitting Hispaniola, the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, on Thursday.

    The hurricane watch issued for Barbados warned residents they could see hurricane conditions within 36 hours.

    Forecasters said Ivan was the strongest cyclone to develop at such a low latitude in recorded Atlantic hurricane history.

    The hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, has been an extraordinarily busy one so far, with eight storms developing in August alone. The average season sees about 10 tropical storms or hurricanes.

    Ivan formed as Hurricane Frances was battering Florida. Frances was the second hurricane to strike the state in three weeks, following Hurricane Charley on Aug. 13.


    Yes, another one is out there -- and it suddenly detonated into a major hurricane this afternoon in the distant Atlantic Ocean.

    Hurricane Ivan posed no immediate threat to South Florida, but forecasters said residents of the Caribbean islands -- including those in the Dominican Republic and Haiti -- had to watch it closely.

    ''Satellite images indicate that Ivan has intensified significantly over the past several hours and it is now a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale,'' forecaster Richard Pasch of the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County said in a special bulletin issued at 1 p.m.

    He said its winds had grown to 115 mph and could grow to 140 by Monday.

    ''Watches may be required for portions of the Windward Islands later today,'' he said. ``Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Ivan.''

    Long-range forecasts, subject to error, had it sweeping through the outer arc of Caribbean islands Tuesday and crashing into the Dominican Republic and Haiti as an intenseCategory 4 hurricane Thursday.

    At 1 p.m. EDT, Ivan's center was located near latitude 10.1 north, longitude 46.6 west or about 995 miles east of Barbados and 2,450 miles from South Florida.

    Ivan was moving west at 21 mph. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest was expected during the next 24 hours.




  2. #2
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    I think we should at the earliest give it 3 more days before talking about Ivans track.......I'm edging my bets that with luck and on that track its heading for GA ....SC.....etc.....if it hits Haiti and Cuba.....it should keeps a course towards the mainland......its really all up in the air right now.......its important to keep an eye on it.....but there is not enough useful info as yet on this storm... for anyone going to or living in FL right now......



  3. #3
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    Orange county say they are not standing down emergency preparations made for Frances yetawhiles just in case. We all need to keep an eye on it without panicking quite yet.
    Julie


  4. #4
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    <blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by esprit
    Orange county say they are not standing down emergency preparations made for Frances yetawhiles just in case. We all need to keep an eye on it without panicking quite yet.
    [/quote]

    Everyone is getting storm fever....so many storms per year take near enough the same paths........most die at sea or go somewhere other than FL......we are all just on edge now.....we are all watching storms like never before........thinking every one is out to get our homes or holidays......TD9 that is now Ivan needs to be watched .....I've been watching it for a while now....but I still think we need 2-3 more days of info on it.......


  5. #5
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    IVAN is now a cat4 and intensifying rapidly towards cat5 within the next 24 hours.....

    SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES SUGGEST THAT IVAN
    CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
    WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 115 KT. CONVECTION IS
    REMARKABLY STRONG IN THE CORE REGION WITH PEAK CLOUD TOPS
    APPROACHING -80 DEG C. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG IN
    ALL QUADRANTS.

    THE INITIAL MOTION IS WNW...285/18. ALL FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST A
    SIMILAR TRACK FOR IVAN OVER THE NEXT 96 HOURS. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER
    ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE,
    BRINGING IVAN INTO THE VICINITY OF BARBADOS IN 36 HOURS. FOR THE
    120 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD A STRONG CONSENSUS REMAINS IN THE
    DYNAMICAL MODELS...ONLY THE GFS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND
    MOVES IVAN FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST. AFTER 72 HOURS THE
    FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
    FORECAST...NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

    IVAN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
    BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE BRING IVAN UP TO 125 KT AT THE 24 HOUR
    FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY INDEX SUGGESTS THAT THE
    CURRENT INTENSIFICATION PHASE WILL CONTINUE AS THE PROBABILITY FOR
    RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NEARLY NINE TIMES THE SAMPLE MEAN. GIVEN
    THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND AND THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
    CONDITIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...IVAN IS FORECAST TO REACH 130
    KT IN 12 HOURS. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY AFTER THAT
    TIME.
    [msnmad][msnmad]
    Matt
    http://www.onlinefloridavillas.com/Villas/1561.aspx


  6. #6
    Super Moderator DaveL's Avatar
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    Dave Lewis


  7. #7
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    It did say on the weather channel that they are not expecting Ivan to go south .....thats a pull to TX....etc........and that historically storms like this go towards TX....or the east coast NC..etc..or head back out to sea ... along the East coast......but this is an unusual storm ...so again at this time everything is still guess work.......


  8. #8
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    If the storms are named in alphabetical order and the last one was Frances and the next one is Ivan what happened to "G" & "H" ?


  9. #9
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    <blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by Rich-n-Ang
    If the storms are named in alphabetical order and the last one was Frances and the next one is Ivan what happened to "G" & "H" ?
    [/quote]

    H may have died out at sea ......(not all storms hit land) .......G was around the coast and landfall last week......I got them mixed up...[8)]


  10. #10
    Site Owner and Admin floridadreamvilla.co.uk's Avatar
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    They were Gaston and Hermine and were probably just tropical storms that petered out (does anyone know?). They are certainly not showing as active on the National Hurricane Center's website.

    <blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by Rich-n-Ang
    If the storms are named in alphabetical order and the last one was Frances and the next one is Ivan what happened to "G" & "H" ?
    [/quote]


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