Increase in flight costs

[helenp]

Hi, we've been looking at flight prices to Orlando with Virgin (Fly Drive)for first two weeks of May in 2010. Until last week they were about 1650 for 2 adults and 2 children not including extra car insurance. In the last week they've gone up to about 1950(sorry pound sign not working on my laptop). I know I should have booked them at that price. Anyway, enough rambling, my question is, is it worth waiting to see if Virgin have a flight sale or should I book now. Your opinions would be much appreciated.

Thanks
Helen

[MarkJan]

I would check the flight only price with Virgin Atlantic and book the car hire through www.uscarhire.com as the rate will be much more competitive. Also, there is no "extra" insurance.

[Snapper]

It's a tough one to answer Helen, as nobody really knows what Virgin have planned for their flight prices.

Typically what happens is that Virgin have 'sets' of seats priced differently. They call them fare classes. They're they same seats on the plane, they just choose to price them differently with different terms and conditions. For example some are changeable, some are flexible, some require a minimum number of nights stay, some are transferrable, some are refundable, etc. and with every combination in between.

When you search the lowest priced flights they will find the seats still available in the most reasonably priced fare classes. Once these fare classes sell out you see the price start to go up as you now have to buy in the next fare class up.

So ... generally speaking ... and contrary to popular belief ... flight prices tend to get more expensive the closer to the flight departure you book.

Now before I get shot down by ooodles of people who have bought tickets in flight sales with just a few weeks to go before the flight departs ...

... some bulk numbers of seats in some fare classes (typically the lower ones) are sold as a bulk deal to tour companies. Virgin are a good example because, as far as I know, Virgin Atlantic effectively 'sell' bulk seats to Virgin Holidays, as well as other tour companies like Expedia, et. al.

Sometimes if these tour companies haven't managed to sell all their seats they might offer them back to Virgin in a deal that is cooked up under the light of a full moon. These seats may well come back into a lower fare class and Virgin (Atlantic) might wrap this up in a sale too in order to get the word out and make sure they sell them.

Sometimes, one imagines, Virgin might juggle their fare classes if, say, they can get more people flying out somewhere, safe in the knowledge that all the lowest fare classes on the return flights have already gone!!

Plus the constantly changing costs of fuel, available capacity, and demand in general will all have a part to play.

(You still with me? There will be a test at the end ... [msnwink][msnwink])

So the summary is that prices tend to go up, but sometimes they will come down.

I know ... not such a great conclusion after all that waffle, is it? But that's how it is! If you want those flights ... book 'em Danno! If you want to take a chance on the price coming down ... it might well do ... but there's a better than evens chance that it might go up as well.

Have fun!

[Katys Grandad]

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by Snapper
So the summary is that prices tend to go up, but sometimes they will come down.[/quote]The only thing you missed out was that airlines quite literally constantly monitor their fares and don't set fare classes for all seats in advance. It is true that the lowest price classes tend to sell out first but that doesn't mean that they won't release further seats in that class if they think it's necessary. The fact is they can't foresee every eventuality so far ahead.

From the passenger's point of view, buying a non-refundable ticket far in advance carries the risk that, in the meantime, other events occur and you might be left with tickets you can't use.

I think the usual advice to decide in advance what are happy to pay and then booking it when it comes up is still the best.

[Sniff]

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by Katys Grandad
The only thing you missed out was that airlines quite literally constantly monitor their fares and don't set fare classes for all seats in advance. [/quote]
Actually you also missed out that they constantly monitor each other's fares too!

Believe me it's not worth trying to predict how the fares will change, other than gross generalisations already given here. All airlines have large, sophisticated yield management systems dedicated to this, and literally millions of fares change in our system every single day.

As is always said, find a price you personally are happy with, pay it, and then stop looking:D

[steph_goodrum]

From the passenger's point of view, buying a non-refundable ticket far in advance carries the risk that, in the meantime, other events occur and you might be left with tickets you can't use.


This is exactly why you should purchase travel insurance as in most cases if you have an event that means the fare is non refundable , illness etc then you should get a refund.