bye bye FRANCES hello IVAN

[mrsbabypowder]

The eastern Caribbean island of Barbados was under a storm alert as powerful Hurricane Ivan raced across the Atlantic Ocean toward the Caribbean on Sunday.
Ivan, the ninth tropical cyclone of the Atlantic hurricane season and the fourth major hurricane, had 125-mph winds and could gain more strength, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

At 5 p.m. EDT, the center of Ivan was 820 miles east-southeast of Barbados at latitude 10.4 north and longitude 47.7 west, the hurricane center said. It was moving to the west-northwest at about 21 mph.

The hurricane center's long-range forecast, which has a large margin of error, had the storm crossing the Lesser Antilles near Barbados on Tuesday afternoon and hitting Hispaniola, the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, on Thursday.

The hurricane watch issued for Barbados warned residents they could see hurricane conditions within 36 hours.

Forecasters said Ivan was the strongest cyclone to develop at such a low latitude in recorded Atlantic hurricane history.

The hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, has been an extraordinarily busy one so far, with eight storms developing in August alone. The average season sees about 10 tropical storms or hurricanes.

Ivan formed as Hurricane Frances was battering Florida. Frances was the second hurricane to strike the state in three weeks, following Hurricane Charley on Aug. 13.


Yes, another one is out there -- and it suddenly detonated into a major hurricane this afternoon in the distant Atlantic Ocean.

Hurricane Ivan posed no immediate threat to South Florida, but forecasters said residents of the Caribbean islands -- including those in the Dominican Republic and Haiti -- had to watch it closely.

''Satellite images indicate that Ivan has intensified significantly over the past several hours and it is now a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale,'' forecaster Richard Pasch of the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County said in a special bulletin issued at 1 p.m.

He said its winds had grown to 115 mph and could grow to 140 by Monday.

''Watches may be required for portions of the Windward Islands later today,'' he said. ``Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Ivan.''

Long-range forecasts, subject to error, had it sweeping through the outer arc of Caribbean islands Tuesday and crashing into the Dominican Republic and Haiti as an intenseCategory 4 hurricane Thursday.

At 1 p.m. EDT, Ivan's center was located near latitude 10.1 north, longitude 46.6 west or about 995 miles east of Barbados and 2,450 miles from South Florida.

Ivan was moving west at 21 mph. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest was expected during the next 24 hours.

[chrizzy100]

I think we should at the earliest give it 3 more days before talking about Ivans track.......I'm edging my bets that with luck and on that track its heading for GA ....SC.....etc.....if it hits Haiti and Cuba.....it should keeps a course towards the mainland......its really all up in the air right now.......its important to keep an eye on it.....but there is not enough useful info as yet on this storm... for anyone going to or living in FL right now......

[esprit]

Orange county say they are not standing down emergency preparations made for Frances yetawhiles just in case. We all need to keep an eye on it without panicking quite yet.

[chrizzy100]

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by esprit
Orange county say they are not standing down emergency preparations made for Frances yetawhiles just in case. We all need to keep an eye on it without panicking quite yet.
[/quote]

Everyone is getting storm fever....so many storms per year take near enough the same paths........most die at sea or go somewhere other than FL......we are all just on edge now.....we are all watching storms like never before........thinking every one is out to get our homes or holidays......TD9 that is now Ivan needs to be watched .....I've been watching it for a while now....but I still think we need 2-3 more days of info on it.......

[Floridalover]

IVAN is now a cat4 and intensifying rapidly towards cat5 within the next 24 hours.....

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES SUGGEST THAT IVAN
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 115 KT. CONVECTION IS
REMARKABLY STRONG IN THE CORE REGION WITH PEAK CLOUD TOPS
APPROACHING -80 DEG C. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG IN
ALL QUADRANTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS WNW...285/18. ALL FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST A
SIMILAR TRACK FOR IVAN OVER THE NEXT 96 HOURS. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER
ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE,
BRINGING IVAN INTO THE VICINITY OF BARBADOS IN 36 HOURS. FOR THE
120 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD A STRONG CONSENSUS REMAINS IN THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS...ONLY THE GFS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND
MOVES IVAN FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST. AFTER 72 HOURS THE
FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

IVAN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE BRING IVAN UP TO 125 KT AT THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY INDEX SUGGESTS THAT THE
CURRENT INTENSIFICATION PHASE WILL CONTINUE AS THE PROBABILITY FOR
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NEARLY NINE TIMES THE SAMPLE MEAN. GIVEN
THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND AND THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...IVAN IS FORECAST TO REACH 130
KT IN 12 HOURS. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY AFTER THAT
TIME.
[msnmad][msnmad]

[DaveL]

http://www.orlando-guide.info/forums/Data/DaveL/200496111332_Ivan1.jpg

[chrizzy100]

It did say on the weather channel that they are not expecting Ivan to go south .....thats a pull to TX....etc........and that historically storms like this go towards TX....or the east coast NC..etc..or head back out to sea ... along the East coast......but this is an unusual storm ...so again at this time everything is still guess work.......

[Rich-n-Ang]

If the storms are named in alphabetical order and the last one was Frances and the next one is Ivan what happened to "G" & "H" ?

[chrizzy100]

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by Rich-n-Ang
If the storms are named in alphabetical order and the last one was Frances and the next one is Ivan what happened to "G" & "H" ?
[/quote]

H may have died out at sea ......(not all storms hit land) .......G was around the coast and landfall last week......I got them mixed up...[8)]

[floridadreamvilla.co.uk]

They were Gaston and Hermine and were probably just tropical storms that petered out (does anyone know?). They are certainly not showing as active on the National Hurricane Center's website.

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by Rich-n-Ang
If the storms are named in alphabetical order and the last one was Frances and the next one is Ivan what happened to "G" & "H" ?
[/quote]

[wilfy]

G - Gaston, (tropical storm) started offshore carolina's and went up the east coast
H - Hermaine - (tropical depression) in the middle of the atlantic

[chrizzy100]

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by floridadreamvilla.co.uk
They were Gaston and Hermine and were probably just tropical storms that petered out (does anyone know?). They are certainly not showing as active on the National Hurricane Center's website.

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by Rich-n-Ang
If the storms are named in alphabetical order and the last one was Frances and the next one is Ivan what happened to "G" & "H" ?
[/quote]
[/quote]

Well G.....passed us on the Cape and went out to sea..last weekend ..leaving me with a very wet smelly basement......

The trouble is the Bermuda high-pressure ridge.... is in a position that will direct storms into the U.S. mainland..... not away as it has in past years......also the sea is a degree warmer..... this is putting everything out of wack.......Ivan is going to be a wait and see storm......

[chrizzy100]

If anyone is in Polk.........there are tornado watches coming in.......so watch the weather......so far its SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY ............also OSCEOLA COUNTY.......
......THE THREAT FOR CELLS MOVING INTO OSCEOLA COUNTY TO PRODUCE

TORNADOES IS HIGH!

[Florida Gal]

Iv'e been tracking the hurricanes as 7 of us are flying out this Thurs 9th Sept to Orlando. If you go to the National Hurricane Website http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ and check out the Maps and charts of hurricane Ivan you will see on the 5 day forecast that it might hit Florida, I know all this can change because of their unpredictability but it's a bit scary for us flying out[msnsad]

Pammie

[Patsy]

Hi all

I have just looked at the map of Ivan above and have tried to drag and drop it elsewhere, without success, and I thought I had the hang of these computors "If only it was that simple"

Regards Patsy

GMTV news reporter this morning was saying that Ivan was a threat (what do the press always know) and that it could be in Florida one week from today.

Don't know how feasible thats is?[msneek]

Lucy

[chrizzy100]

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by lal
GMTV news reporter this morning was saying that Ivan was a threat (what do the press always know) and that it could be in Florida one week from today.

Don't know how feasible thats is?[msneek]

Lucy
[/quote]

There are no PROBABILITIES for FL at this time.....the tracks been off by over 250 miles each day for the last two days.....its a good idea to watch this storms track....but you must also read the probabilities.....etc.....the FL probabilities should be seen in a few days.....

[esprit]

Ivan was just put back to a 3, it is moving too quickly to retain its intensity. It is due to go over some mountains on some islands it is crossing which may affect it. On projected path, it crosses Cuba on Friday so yes it COULD be here a week today. The word is COULD. They still dont know its exact path. They were wrong with Charley until just hours before. They do think it is heading for the mainland US but could hit the Carolinas, Georgia, the Panhandle, not necessarily Central Florida.
What happened to Howard?? I think he was in the Pacific off California. Do they have a separate set of names over there?

[floridadreamvilla.co.uk]

The Atlantic storm starting with a H was called Hermine Julie.

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by esprit
Ivan was just put back to a 3, it is moving too quickly to retain its intensity. It is due to go over some mountains on some islands it is crossing which may affect it. On projected path, it crosses Cuba on Friday so yes it COULD be here a week today. The word is COULD. They still dont know its exact path. They were wrong with Charley until just hours before. They do think it is heading for the mainland US but could hit the Carolinas, Georgia, the Panhandle, not necessarily Central Florida.
What happened to Howard?? I think he was in the Pacific off California. Do they have a separate set of names over there?
[/quote]

[esprit]

Two different sets of names for Atlantic and Pacific then?

[caz]

Yes Julie, different names for Atlantic storms, and various other regions. It's amazing what new information you learn as a villa owner.[msneek]

[chrizzy100]

An air force hurricane
hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate ivan around 18:00......after that there could be some idea about how strong it is etc.....news about where it heading after hitting the Islands should be coming online in the next few days......

[lookout]

Gaston and Hermine were both tropical storms that went north up the east coast about 10 days ago when we were over in Florida.

Tim

[chrizzy100]

Hurricane hunters find ivan weaker but still dangerous...A hurricane warning remains in effect for barbados. St. Lucia. St.
Vincent. The grenadines. And grenada and its dependencies.A hurricane watch remains in effect for martinique.A tropical storm warning remains in effect for trinidad and tobago.

Interests elsewhere in the lesser antilles should monitor the
progress of ivan.


http://www.orlando-guide.info/forums/Data/chrizzy100/200496191635_trackmap2004wind.gif

[Robert5988]

Chrizzy,
NOAA (the official government agency for those who do not know)has the predicted track of Ivan as considerably South and West of the track you posted. They take the mean of all the computer predictons

[floridadreamvilla.co.uk]

But that's still changing every time they update their forcast. Only time will tell...<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by Robert5988
Chrizzy,
NOAA (the official government agency for those who do not know)has the predicted track of Ivan as considerably South and West of the track you posted. They take the mean of all the computer predictons




[/quote]

[chrizzy100]

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by Robert5988
Chrizzy,
NOAA (the official government agency for those who do not know)has the predicted track of Ivan as considerably South and West of the track you posted. They take the mean of all the computer predictons




[/quote]

This track is not from NOAA....no...it from HA..... its a very pretty colour......and anyway I got bored with the other one........:D

[AlanB]

Latest from National Hurricane Centre - still quite a few days to go, but worrying nevertheless.

http://www.orlando-guide.info/forums/Data/AlanB/200496232120_ivan2.gif

[AlanB]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 062048
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 06 2004

THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL...700 MB...WINDS OF 94
KT AND 87 KT OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST QUADRANTS
RESPECTIVELY. THIS SUPPORTS A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 90 KT...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE THEY MEASURED BY
DROPSONDE...969 MB. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY
IS SLIGHTLY LOWER SINCE THE DROPSONDE SHOWED WINDS OVER 20 KT WHEN
IT HIT THE SURFACE...SUGGESTING THAT IT WAS NOT IN THE CENTER OF
THE EYE. SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICT A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE...AND
THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW REMAINS IMPRESSIVE. WE SEE NO
REASON WHY IVAN COULD NOT RESTRENGTHEN VERY SOON...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION...285/19...IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM WHAT IT WAS
EARLIER TODAY. THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A STRONG EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
CURRENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL
CONSENSUS...CONU...HAS BEEN SHIFTING A LITTLE TO THE WEST
TODAY...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. HOWEVER...IN THE 4-5 DAY TIME
FRAME...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN FRANCES...OR ITS REMNANTS OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...AND IVAN. IF A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS
IS LEFT IN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA...IVAN COULD VEER TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS SIMPLY TOO
EARLY TO BE MORE SPECIFIC REGARDING THE POTENTIAL THREAT TO THE
UNITED STATES COAST.

[AlanB]

Next advisory - track a bit further west.

http://www.orlando-guide.info/forums/Data/AlanB/200496235044_ivan3.gif

[chrizzy100]

If you look at storm tracks over the years.......when the storm hits the bigger Islands...Cuba etc...it can send the storm to the South.....MS..TX....... up the East coast to SC.....NC.......or back out to sea and up the the East coast......or it can just die down before hitting the US........ lets all hope this storm has read the history books.......

If you got to read the discussion a few days ago they were talking about this being a storm like they had not seen before....... and every weatherman is saying something different.....again its a waiting game......

:(

[Floridalover]

Latest from NOAA has it tracking further south still......

HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 06 2004

AN EVALUATION OF THE DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS SUGGESTS THAT
IVAN HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
DROPSONDES THROUGHOUT THE MISSION HAVE SHOWN A MODEST DROP IN
PRESSURE FROM 969 MB TO 963 MB. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND
MEASURED WAS 106 KT...CORRESPONDING TO A SURFACE WIND OF 85 KT.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 65 KT TO 90 KT...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 90 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/18. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PROVIDED A
FIX TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. IVAN IS EXPECTED
TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE SOON...AS UNIVERSALLY SUGGESTED
BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE. DUE IN PART TO A MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL
POSITION...THE FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
THERE IS A DIFFERENCE OF OPINION IN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AT 96 AND
120 HOURS. THE GFS...UKMET...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE BRING IVAN
WELL SOUTH OF CUBA TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENNINSULA. NOGAPS AND THE
GFDL BRING IVAN MUCH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND IS LINE WITH THE
CLOSELY PACKED MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS.

A NOAA JET IN IVAN THIS EVENING HAS FOUND THE EXISTENCE OF A SAHARAN
AIR LAYER IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE STORM. THIS MAY HELP
EXPLAIN THE WEAKENING OF IVAN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. IVAN IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT PROCEEDS TO THE WEST
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SINCE THE NEW FORECAST KEEPS IVAN
AWAY FROM ANY MAJOR LAND AREAS...THE INTENSITY OF IVAN IN THE LATER
PERIODS ARE MAINTAINED.

[floridadreamvilla.co.uk]

Here's the latest. The trend seems to be that it is projected to go further southwards:



http://www.orlando-guide.info/forums/Data/floridadreamvilla.co.uk/20049782834_1070303W5.gif

[Big Mack]

Guys

Here is the latest discussion on Ivan from the Hurricane Centre. I am not clever enough to attach the latest forecast map, but it is almost identical to the one posted directly above except that they have it reaching Cuba later now at approx 8am Sunday.


000
WTNT44 KNHC 071455
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 07 2004

LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EARLIER THIS
MORNING INDICATED THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS 963 MB AND THE PEAK
WIND AT FLIGHT LEVEL WAS 116 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 100 KNOTS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.
CURRENTLY...THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS BUT A LARGE-UPPER
LOW IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAY INDUCE SOME SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE.
THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN
THAT SHOWS A 20-KNOT SOUTHERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE...WHICH
COULD HALT INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS ULTIMATELY MOVE THE UPPER-LOW WESTWARD LEAVING A MORE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR THE HURRICANE TO STRENGTHEN
AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IVAN IS A POWERFUL HURRICANE
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN FIVE DAYS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THE
HURRICANE IS SOUTH A RATHER STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS
STEERING THE HURRICANE WESTWARD. IN TIME...A LARGE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE
ALLOWING THE HURRICANE TO MOVE MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOW FAR NORTH THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE DEPENDS ON
THE INTENSITY OF TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS VARIES
WITH MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A
LITTLE BIT AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

[chrizzy100]

If you look at different track maps.....you'll see Ivan going different ways......info that will be useful to people in FL should start to come in late Wednesday......or Thursday......

[Floridalover]

Very useful, as I am going on friday.......hmmmmm:(

[Scotborder]

Good luck Matt and if you ever meet Ivan tell him his not welcome!

[Floridalover]

Dont worry, I'll tell him exactly what I think of him.[msnscared]

GMTV still reporting that Ivan could hit Florida if it continues on present path.

Go away IVAN!!![msnoo]

[Floridalover]

Latest track from NOAA indicates a turn towards FL....

HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 07 2004

IVAN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING. THE LAST PASS
OF AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER THROUGH THE EYE SHOWED A
CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 950 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 129
KT AT 700 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 115 KT BASED ON THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KT FROM
ALL AGENCIES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF
IVAN HAS IMPROVED SINCE 00Z AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY MAY BE
CONSERVATIVE. THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE IN IVAN
AROUND 06Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/15. IVAN REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LARGE-SCALE
MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES IT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS TO THE EAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT THIS
SEEEMS TO BE RETREATING WESTWARD AS FAST OR FASTER THAN THE
HURRICANE. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A
MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED THEREAFTER.
UNFORTUNATELY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN AT THE MOMENT. THE GFS MADE A HUGE SHIFT TO THE RIGHT...FROM
PASSING WEST OF FLORIDA TO PASSING 200 NM EAST OF FLORIDA. THE
GFDL ALSO SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...BUT FROM A LEFT OUTLIER INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO
SHIFTS...A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH EARLY IN THE FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR
THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO THE INTENSITY OF IVAN
WILL BE MAINLY CONTROLLED BY CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES...CHANGES IN
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE...AND LAND INTERACTION. AN SSM/I OVERPASS
AT 0105Z SHOWED AN OUTER EYEWALL STARTING TO FORM...WHICH SUGGEST
THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION CYCLE WILL STOP IN 6-12 HR. HOWEVER...
BY THAT TIME IVAN MAY BE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE
HURRICANE WILL PASS OVER SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH 48 HR...THEN REACH WARMER WATER NORTHWEST OF
JAMAICA AFTER 72 HR. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT UPS AND DOWNS IN THE
INTENSITY...IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG HURRICANE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...MOST LIKELY CATEGORY 4 BUT POSSIBLY REACHING
CATEGORY 5 AT SOME POINTS.

HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO...AS ANY MOTION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NEAR OR OVER THOSE ISLANDS.

[Floridalover]

The track has changed again....remarkably similiar to Charley.



http://www.orlando-guide.info/forums/Data/floridalover/2004989340_Ivantrack2amupdate08sep.gif

[Floridalover]

http://www.orlando-guide.info/forums/Data/floridalover/20049894411_at200409_5day.gif

[Robert5988]

FloridaLover,
How did you manage to post the Weds 8th Sept 5am EDT update at 04:44am EDT?

[floridadreamvilla.co.uk]

They sometimes come out up to 40 mins early although I do not see the 5am one on the National Hurricane Center's website yet.

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by Robert5988
FloridaLover,
How did you manage to post the Weds 8th Sept 5am EDT update at 04:44am EDT?
[/quote]

[Floridalover]

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by Robert5988
FloridaLover,
How did you manage to post the Weds 8th Sept 5am EDT update at 04:44am EDT?
[/quote]

I have psychic qualities [msntongue]

Here's the 5am NOAA discussion.........

HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 08 2004

IVAN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING. THE MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORTED WAS 133 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...
WHICH EQUALS A 120-KT SURFACE WIND. THE HIGHEST WIND OBSERVED BY
DROPSONDES WAS 150 KT AT 923 MB IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL. THE
CENTRAL HAS ALSO BEEN AS LOW AS 947 MB...BUT THE DROPSONDE MEASURED
A SURFACE WIND OF 57 KT...SO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS LIKELY LOWER.
BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 120 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/14. IVAN HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH OF
DUE WEST ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH THAT IS
ORIENTED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE HIGH IS SEPARATING FRANCES TO THE
NORTH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FROM IVAN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...THE HIGH/RIDGE IS FORECAST BY
ALL THE MODELS THE GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA AND THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS FRANCES LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. BY
DAY 3...A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST
IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE WEST COAST AND AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS PATTERN
RESULTS IN A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO DIG
SOUTHWARD AND ERODE/WEAKEN THE RIDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE
MODELS IS HOW THEY HANDLE A YET-TO-DEVELOP MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS DEVELOP THE
LOW AND THEN QUICKLY WEAKEN IT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS BY DAY 4. THE GFS...HOWEVER...HANGS ONTO
THE LOW LONGER AND KEEPS IT FARTHER SOUTH...WHICH ERODES THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE SOONER AND ALLOWS IVAN TO TURN
NORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS WHEN THE HURRICANE IS NEAR JAMAICA. FOR THE
TIME BEING...THE GFS AND THE BAM MODELS ARE CONSIDERED TO BE STRONG
EASTERN OUTLIERS AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...TIMING CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES IS
IMPOSSIBLE...EXCEPT IN THE SHORT TERM...WHICH IVAN APPEARS TO BE
STARTING TO GO THROUGH NOW. ONCE THAT CYCLE ENDS...IVAN SHOULD
BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AGAIN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE NEGATIVE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTH COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. INTENSITY DECREASES
AT 72HR AND 120HR REFLECT POSSIBLE PASSAGES OVER JAMAICA AND CUBA.

[traceydeb]

Do you think Ivan will hit Kissimee and if so will he have finished his rampage by 19th September,which is when we are due to fly out.

I would realy hate my holiday to be cancelled as we have been planning it since June 2003 and like poor Tyson (who i realy felt sorry for[msnsad] would be very upset.

Can i just say thanks to everyone, I have picked up alot of good tips e.g. places to shop and eatetc., from this forum[msnsmile2]

Tracey

[floridadreamvilla.co.uk]

It's too early to tell. The hurricane experts do not even know if it will pose a threat to Florida at this time, let alone which part of Florida it may hit.

They say the next 2 days will make their predictions a lot more sure, but even then, anyhting could happen. They are just saying people should be aware of the possible track and nothing much else at this stage.

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by traceydeb
Do you think Ivan will hit Kissimee and if so will he have finished his rampage by 19th September,which is when we are due to fly out.

I would realy hate my holiday to be cancelled as we have been planning it since June 2003 and like poor Tyson (who i realy felt sorry for[msnsad] would be very upset.

Can i just say thanks to everyone, I have picked up alot of good tips e.g. places to shop and eatetc., from this forum[msnsmile2]

Tracey
[/quote]

[chrizzy100]

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by traceydeb
Do you think Ivan will hit Kissimee and if so will he have finished his rampage by 19th September,which is when we are due to fly out.

I would realy hate my holiday to be cancelled as we have been planning it since June 2003 and like poor Tyson (who i realy felt sorry for[msnsad] would be very upset.

Can i just say thanks to everyone, I have picked up alot of good tips e.g. places to shop and eatetc., from this forum[msnsmile2]

Tracey
[/quote]

Once it gets in the Golf it can do anything.....I think most weather people were hoping it would make that sharp turn before it seems like its going to....its on near enough the same track as a large storm called Georges in 99..that went into the Golf after heading towards FL and made land fall in AL......so all bets are still open.....

[julieanne]

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:

Once it gets in the Golf it can do anything.....I think most weather people were hoping it would make that sharp turn before it seems like its going to....its on near enough the same track as a large storm called Georges in 99..that went into the Golf after heading towards FL and made land fall in AL......so all bets are still open.....
[/quote]
[msnoo] Oh no! Last time I went in September we had Georges! And although it didn't hit Florida we went through all the prep, everywhere closed etc etc (this was on the Gulf Coast). And we did get some pretty bad storms. In fact each time I've been in September there's either been a hurricane or the threat of one. Hope I don't "jinx" it again!

[chrizzy100]

I just saw on the news that this storm is doing a lot of damage.....and that they do expect it to hit somewhere in the US.....its on a track like Charleys / Georges....so people doing a Golf coast holiday...should keep an eye on this storm the next few days.....

[floridadreamvilla.co.uk]

Here's the latest:

http://www.orlando-guide.info/forums/Data/floridadreamvilla.co.uk/200498162956_081513W5.gif

000
WTNT44 KNHC 081448
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 08 2004

LAST FIX FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATED
THAT THE PRESSURE INCREASED TO 955 MB BUT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE
STILL 133 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL. SINCE THEN...HIGH
RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE EYE IS NOT AS
DISTINCT AS EARLIER BUT STILL VISIBLE. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT
120 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE HURRICANE WILL HAVE TO FIGHT SOME SHEAR AND
WILL BE MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST...THERE MAY
BE SOME WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE
HURRICANE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE THERE
IS HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND LOWER SHEAR. SO...IVAN IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY BEFORE REACHING CUBA. NEVERTHERELESS...THESE ARE
BASICALLY FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY AND THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

SATELLITE AND EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IVAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
IVAN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE...FORCING IVAN TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND A
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD MOVE THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWEST
AND NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IT MUST
BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 72 HOURS IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN SINCE STEERING CURRENTS WILL BE WEAK AND ARE CURRENTLY
NOT WELL-DEFINED IN THE FORECAST MODELS. IN FACT...SOME RELIABLE
MODELS BRING IVAN OVER FLORIDA AND ANOTHER RELIABLE GROUP MOVE THE
HURRICANE TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS NO APPARENT REASON TO
FAVOR ONE SCENARIO OVER THE OTHER AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND
PRESUMES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RIDGING TO KEEP THE HURRICANE ON
A NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK... BRINGING DANGEROUS IVAN
OVER WESTERN CUBA IN 4 DAYS AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
DAY FIVE.

FORECASTER AVILA

[chrizzy100]

I like this track better than the last one John.....and its more in keeping with what it should be doing........
the next track report should be a good one.....I'm sorry for wishing bad things on the other coast lines in the Golf........but FL has done her bit this year.....she needs time off.........

I'm just going to add that even if......it passes FL.....people inland could still see TS or TD warnings....people all over FL will be buying up everything in the shops.......so do get in enough food..dry/tined with hand tin openers...don't forget that...water.....etc for 3 days or more....as the storm nears the US coast line......

[floridadreamvilla.co.uk]

I would not disagee there although I would prefer the track that shows Ivan shooting off into the Atlantic to slowly fizzle out. Somehow I do not think I'll see this though [msnsad]<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by chrizzy100
I like this track better than the last one John.....and its more in keeping with what it should be doing........
the next track report should be a good one.....I'm sorry for wishing bad things on the other coast lines in the Golf........but FL has done her bit this year.....she needs time off.........

[/quote]

[domster]

Someone at work has just told me the track is looking like going straight up florida. He says he got his info from the BBC.

Is it true it is cat 5.

DOM

[floridadreamvilla.co.uk]

The above that I posted is from the National Hurricane Center in Miami which is the de-facto source of information on this. Looks like the BBC are short of news and trying to sensationalise this a bit. It's too easrly to tell where it might go as the above official narrative clearly says.
<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by domster
Someone at work has just told me the track is looking like going straight up florida. He says he got his info from the BBC.

Is it true it is cat 5.

DOM
[/quote]

[Big Mack]

Chrizzy, you are starting to get my hopes up :D What do you think the next track MIGHT show?

I have already had my trip delayed by one week because of Frances and am very keen to see Ivan sling his hook. Like John, i would like it to be mid atlantic so no one has to have him, but like you if its going to hit the US i think Florida has done its bit and its time for someone else to have a turn. Hate to sound uncharitable but share and share alike is my motto:D:D[:I]

Mack

[chrizzy100]

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by floridadreamvilla.co.uk
I would not disagee there although I would prefer the track that shows Ivan shooting off into the Atlantic to slowly fizzle out. Somehow I do not think I'll see this though [msnsad]<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by chrizzy100
I like this track better than the last one John.....and its more in keeping with what it should be doing........
the next track report should be a good one.....I'm sorry for wishing bad things on the other coast lines in the Golf........but FL has done her bit this year.....she needs time off.........

[/quote]
[/quote]

I liked that track better too.....:(

[chrizzy100]

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by domster
Someone at work has just told me the track is looking like going straight up florida. He says he got his info from the BBC.

Is it true it is cat 5.

DOM
[/quote]

Its a cat 4.....still many many many miles away.....no-one can tell for sure yet where it will go....lets take it day by day...

[chrizzy100]

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by Big Mack
Chrizzy, you are starting to get my hopes up :D What do you think the next track MIGHT show?

I have already had my trip delayed by one week because of Frances and am very keen to see Ivan sling his hook. Like John, i would like it to be mid atlantic so no one has to have him, but like you if its going to hit the US i think Florida has done its bit and its time for someone else to have a turn. Hate to sound uncharitable but share and share alike is my motto:D:D[:I]

Mack
[/quote]

I don't know what to think about the next track....because they have two good ideas of where it maybe going....and both could be right.....

[Robert5988]

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:What do you think the next track MIGHT show?
[/quote]

The US Government forecasters with access to all weather information and computer models cannot accurately predict where it may go. The charts posted by John are their best prediction but they are at pains to say that, this far out, the track could alter by hundreds of miles by the time it reaches the latitude of central Florida. Even at the last minute(like Charley) it can change direction.

The guy on Fox was saying that the passage across Cuba could have a significant effect on the direction/speed/force of Ivan. If it goes across the narrow Eastern part it will have minimal effect; but move the track East and it will spend more time across land and that throws their calculations out.

[Robert5988]

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:If it goes across the narrow Eastern part [/quote]

That should read Western

[jolliffee]

We’ll all become experts soon[msnwink]

[chrizzy100]

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by jolliffee
We’ll all become experts soon[msnwink]
[/quote]


I wanted to be a fisherman when I was young.....so I spent years watching and reading and listening to weather reports......
Then my interest turned toward twisters for a while.......

I turned back to storms like Ivan/Charley etc after moving to the Cape....I follow them from birth to death.....I know I'm sad......:(

[Ray&Sarah]

Not sad Chrizzy (well maybe a little) just well informed.:D And that helps the rest of us.[msnsmile2]

[chrizzy100]

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by Ray&Sarah
Not sad Chrizzy (well maybe a little) just well informed.:D And that helps the rest of us.[msnsmile2]
[/quote]

Just looking at the news....with my fav weatherman.....it seems going back to sea and then maybe on to NC is still on the cards... it looks like they are counting nothing out.......while the storm is still so far away......

[Ruth]

Well it is certainly causing extensive damage wherever it makes landfall:(

[chrizzy100]

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by Ruth
Well it is certainly causing extensive damage wherever it makes landfall:(
[/quote]

The new track does not look so good....putting landfall around the Tampa area....

[esprit]

The weather channel here are starting to discuss a possible landfall in either Tampa or Fort Myers of a cat 4 hurricane. Does this sound familiar to anyone??

[chrizzy100]

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by esprit
The weather channel here are starting to discuss a possible landfall in either Tampa or Fort Myers of a cat 4 hurricane. Does this sound familiar to anyone??
[/quote]

Its becoming a bit like Ground hog day.........but they were wrong about landfall the last two time at this stage.....so its still a waiting game.....

[Ray&Sarah]

OMG my nerves are shattered already!!![msncry][msneek]

[Ruth]

It has now been upgraded to a category 5[msncry]

[Floridalover]

Frances is causing havoc here in New York with rain since yesterday and now.....

lets hope this doesnt happen:

http://www.orlando-guide.info/forums/Data/floridalover/20049911545_ivantrack5am09sep.gif

[Wazz]

i am absolutely dumbstruck :(:(

going on sunday and have been telling the wife the last 2 days "it'll be ok."
wake up this morning and the track looks like it's heading straight for florida like it knows what it's doing!!!!

can't concentrate on anything now just waiting for more news and predictions all day.

[chrizzy100]

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by Ruth
It has now been upgraded to a category 5[msncry]
[/quote]

The news up here is saying that this storm could go above a cat 5.......at what point they never said........

Remember also that this track is changing all the time....but I don't want it changing to far cus I don't want this storm on the Cape.....

[chrizzy100]

And before anyone worries TD10 is going nowhere near FL......

[chrizzy100]

Out of interest FRANCES has so far given the US 92 tornados......

[huckleberry house]

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by Wazz
i am absolutely dumbstruck :(:(

going on sunday and have been telling the wife the last 2 days "it'll be ok."
wake up this morning and the track looks like it's heading straight for florida like it knows what it's doing!!!!

can't concentrate on anything now just waiting for more news and predictions all day.
[/quote]

Wazz

You will drive yourself beserk watching the forecasts all day long, the reality is that the predictions are forever changing as no-one can really be sure where it is going to hit yet. And while it may well be a cat5 now I would be willing to bet it is nowhere near that if and its a big IF it ever reaches the Orlando area. Forget about it for now and get on with planning your holiday, another few days and the forecasters will be more sure of the likely path.


Lesley

[Rich-n-Ang]

If you go to the BBC link below and click on "Animated Guide" there is a great explanation of how Hurricanes start.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3634898.stm

[Homer]

I go out Next Thursday so must admit I am checking daily

Looks like we may be lucky but then again you just can't tell most of the time

Me and the family just keeping our fingers crossed to make sure[msnsmile2]

[Floridalover]

latest NOAA discussion.......the models used seem to have FL in site.....

HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 09 2004

AIR FORCE RECON THIS MORNING HAS FOUND AN INTENSE HURRICANE IVAN.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 922 MB HAS DROPPED 15 MB IN THE PAST 7
HOURS...WHILE THE 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 154
KT...EQUAL TO 139 KT SURFACE WIND...TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER ON TWO SEPARATE PASSES. IN ADDITION...AND EYEWALL
DROPSONDE RECORDED A WIND SPEED OF 175 KT AT ABOUT 630 FT ABOVE SEA
LEVEL. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...IVAN IS EASILY UPGRADED TO A
140-KT CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. AS I WRITE...A NEW RECON REPORT
INDICATES AN EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE OF 916 MB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13. IVAN HAS BEEN SLOWLY GAINING LATITUDE
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND THE LAST TWO RECON FIX POSITIONS
SUGGEST THAT IVAN MAY BE MOVING AT 295 DEGREES. DROPSONDE DATA FROM
THE 00Z SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE FLIGHTS AROUND IVAN HAS RESULTED IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG ALL OF THE AVAILABLE NHC MODELS THROUGH 60
HOURS...ON IVAN MOVING OVER OR AT LEAST VERY NEAR JAMAICA IN 36-48
HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY...ALTHOUGH THE
SPREAD IS MUCH LESS THAN IT HAS BEEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 2-3 DAYS.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODEL SPREAD STILL BRACKETS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS AGAIN REMAINS IN
HOW THEY HANDLE THE DEVELOPMENT AND FUTURE TRACK OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 34N 48W. WATER VAPOR WINDS SUGGEST
THAT THE UPPER-LOW IS STRONGER THAN ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING. HOWEVER...THE MODEL THAT INITIALIZED THE LOW THE BEST
AT 00Z WAS NOGAPS. THIS MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT...ALONG WITH
THE ECMWF MODEL...ON BRINGING IVAN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL CUBA AND
THEN OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UKMET MODEL REMAINS
THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIER...WHILE THE GFS IS STILL THE EASTERNMOST
OUTLIER. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING THEIR
TRACKS TOWARD FLORIDA...AND THE LATEST GFDL RUN NOW TAKES IVAN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA IN 96-120 HOURS. GIVEN THE BETTER
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THIS FORECAST CYCLE...THE OFFICIAL
TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AT 96- AND 120-HR.

THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS IMPRESSIVE AND WELL-ESTABLISHED
...AND IF ANYTHING...WILL ONLY GET BETTER FOR THE NEXT 72-96 HOURS.
THEREFORE...THE FUTURE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY INNER-
CORE CONVECTIVE CHANGES AND LAND INTERACTION SINCE TH WATER AHEAD OF
IVAN IS ONLY FORECAST TO GET WARMER...AS WARM AS 30C SOUTH OF CUBA
AND OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

[chrizzy100]

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by huckleberry house
<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by Wazz
i am absolutely dumbstruck :(:(

going on sunday and have been telling the wife the last 2 days "it'll be ok."
wake up this morning and the track looks like it's heading straight for florida like it knows what it's doing!!!!

can't concentrate on anything now just waiting for more news and predictions all day.
[/quote]

Wazz

You will drive yourself beserk watching the forecasts all day long, the reality is that the predictions are forever changing as no-one can really be sure where it is going to hit yet. And while it may well be a cat5 now I would be willing to bet it is nowhere near that if and its a big IF it ever reaches the Orlando area. Forget about it for now and get on with planning your holiday, another few days and the forecasters will be more sure of the likely path.


Lesley
[/quote]

I have to agree with Lesley....last night the track was for landfall near Tampa....now its moved miles over......they only have an idea of where it could hit once it leaves the jamaica area....the guy on the weather channel this morning was still talking about it heading for the Golf......

[KirstieLou]

I really hope its passed by Friday 17th. And I hope there isn't another one brewing!

[chrizzy100]

KEY WEST, Fla. - All tourists and recreational vehicles were urged to evacuate the Florida Keys early Thursday because the powerful Hurricane Ivan could hit the island chain by Sunday.

[rainyday]

Here's the latest projection - but the movement since the last one does show how variable the track is.



http://www.orlando-guide.info/forums/Data/rainyday/200499165613_ivan11am20040909.gif

[nic3]

I work in the travel industry in the UK, and have just heard Ivan has completely destroyed one side of Grenada. The whole island has been put on stop sale as it is going to take a long time to repair the damage.

I hope it misses Florida.....my heart goes out to the Grenada residents.xx

[Cruella DeVilla]

20 people dead so far in Grenanda and on its way to Jamaca. :(

[lisi]

Wow. I hope it fizzles out soon - who would believe 3 hurricanes so soon after each other. It seems as if it is headed straight to Fort Myers and my villa! My heart goes out to all the people in Florida who right now cannot believe what might be about to happen. How do you cope?:(

Lisi

[AlanB]

Heading Florida's way but slowing and weakening and lots of uncertainty

HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 09 2004

THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FIX WAS EARLIER THIS MORNING ABOUT 1141Z.
FLIGHT LEVEL...700 MB...WINDS WERE 156 KNOTS WITH AN EXTRAPOLATED
PRESSURE OF 917 MB AND 921 MB MEASURED BY A DROP. IVAN HAS AN
OUTSTANDING SATELLITE PRESENTATION...HOWEVER...THE RING OF
CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE BIT. INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 140 KNOTS. HURRICANES NORMALLY DO NOT MAINTAIN
SUCH PEAK INTENSITY FOR A LONG TIME AND MOST LIKELY THERE WILL WE
SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING. THE HURRICANE WILL PROBABLY FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN CAT 4 AND 5 UNTIL IT REACHES CUBA. THEREAFTER..THE EFFECTS
OF LAND...INCREASING SHEAR AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT <span style="color:blue">WILL CAUSE
WEAKENING.</span id="blue">
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THERE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST BECAUSE THE HURRICANE WILL BE STEERED BY THE FLOW
SURROUNDING A WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL MODELS ARE
HIGHLY CLUSTERED DURING THIS PERIOD...BRINGING THE HURRICANE
BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. <span style="color:blue">THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST
TRACK BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN</span id="blue">. STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO
COLLAPSE AND CONSEQUENTLY...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN
AS IT CROSSES CUBA. A RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED...WILL BRING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AS INDICATED BY THE UK...CANADIAN AND NOGAPS GLOBAL
MODELS. A WEAKER RIDGE THAN ANTICIPATED COULD RESULT ON A MORE
NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE BAHAMAS AND NEARBY THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA AS INDICATED BY THE GFS. THE 4-5 DAY OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...CALLS FOR A SOLUTION IN
BETWEEN...BRINGING THE HURRICANE OVER WEST/CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN FLORIDA.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 14.5N 71.4W 140 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 15.3N 73.3W 140 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 17.0N 75.2W 135 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 18.5N 77.3W 135 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 19.5N 79.0W 135 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 21.0N 80.5W 130 KT
96HR VT 13/1200Z 24.0N 82.0W 115 KT
120HR VT 14/1200Z 28.5N 82.0W 85 KT INLAND

[AlanB]

Just spoken with someone on hols in Jamaica - they flew in with Air Jamaica and they are stuck there. All those holidaying with Thomson have been flown out to Dominican republic. As you can imagine they are very scared and have been told their hotel is the safest place on the island. Fingers crossed for them.

[villa2004]

WE are planning to fly to Orlando on saturday
ARE WE MAD?

[Mo Green]

Have just spoken to the people in our villa in Rotonda West on the Gulf Coast. They said local shops are running out of water, non-perishable food, flashlights etc. They have spoken to neighbours who are evacuating/boarding up windows etc as they fear Ivan is going to be worse than Charley.

Maureen
http://www.orlandovillas.com/villaview.asp?villa=1267

[chrizzy100]

They again have the storm back out into the Gulf........

[floridadreamvilla.co.uk]

http://www.orlando-guide.info/forums/Data/floridadreamvilla.co.uk/200499215017_092038W5.gif

BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES HAVE BEEN IN THE EYE
OF IVAN DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. MINIMUM PRESSURE REMAINS AT
ABOUT 921 MB BUT MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 144
KNOTS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT INITIAL INTENSITY CAN BE LOWERED TO 130
KNOTS AT THIS TIME. THERE WERE SOME INDICATIONS FROM MICROWAVE
DATA AND NOW CONFIRMED WITH THE PLANE THAT IVAN HAS A DOUBLE
EYEWALL STRUCTURE. THIS MAY EXPLAIN THE RECENT SLIGHT WEAKENING.
THE HURRICANE WILL PROBABLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN CAT 4 AND 5 WHILE
MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF LOW SHEAR AND HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
BEFORE REACHING CUBA. THEREAFTER...THE EFFECTS OF LAND AND
INCREASING SHEAR WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING.

IVAN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT
13 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST BECAUSE THE HURRICANE WILL BE STEERED BY THE FLOW
SURROUNDING A WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL MODELS ARE
HIGHLY CLUSTERED DURING THIS PERIOD...BRINGING THE HURRICANE
NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK CONTINUES TO BE
UNCERTAIN SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MODELS
DIVERGE. HOWEVER...MODELS FROM 12Z ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT
THAN IN EARLIER RUNS...AND IN GENERAL HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT
WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO SHOWS A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT.

THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE STEPPED FREQUENCY
MICROWAVE RADIOMETER DATA ONBOARD THE NOAA P3 PLANE CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING IVAN.

[amy]

That looks like it will miss Central Florida is it stays on that course[msnsmile].
Lets hope so, and hope it is down graded before it reaches the Pan Handle.

[mrsbabypowder]

well since we arrived in florida on august 10th we have survived charley, we have survived frances and i am sure we will survive ivan. i just wanted to pass a message on to Mother Nature, that yes i am very pleased to be living in Florida, but a BIG PRETTY PLEASE COULD SHE STOP SENDING THESE HURRICANES MY WAY. i know things always happens in 3's but come on, i have now had my fair share and think its time they just went away. PLEASE........[msnsmile2]

[Carla]

You're not mad at all and you'll have a wonderful holiday. Wish it was me going too. :D:D:D

Any room in your suitcase for a little one???
I'm only 5' and you'd hardly notice I was there!!!
Ask anyone on this forum and they'll tell you how quiet and
unobtrusive I am!!!! :D:D:D


<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by villa2004
WE are planning to fly to Orlando on saturday
ARE WE MAD?
[/quote]

[huckleberry house]

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by Carla
You're not mad at all and you'll have a wonderful holiday. Wish it was me going too. :D:D:D

Any room in your suitcase for a little one???
I'm only 5' and you'd hardly notice I was there!!!
Ask anyone on this forum and they'll tell you how quiet and
unobtrusive I am!!!! :D:D:D


<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by villa2004
WE are planning to fly to Orlando on saturday
ARE WE MAD?
[/quote]
[/quote]


Honestly Carla wouldnt be any trouble at all, honestly, truthfully, please, please take her with you prefarably to a place with no phones or internet access and if you only have a one way ticket for her thats just too bad, but she wouldnt be any trouble, honestly[msnwink][msnwink][msnwink]


Lesley

[Carla]

See, I told you that I could rely on my friends to plead my case!!! ;);):D:D:D

So, can I come then villa2004???????:D:D:D

I won't be any trouble, honestly.......................

(Help John - there's no "fingers crossed" icon on here :D:D:D)

[amy]

I'll even carry the case for you:D:D:D

[CarolAnn]

I understand from people on the ground that things are calm at the moment in Florida:) We had guests in our villa in August when Charley hit, they said it was fine, no problem, have recommended us to friends, who have booked for next August, and they are in the process of moving to Florida:)[8D]:)

[hightide]

Does anybody know what the airports base there decision to close on (such as path, wind speed etc.) We are ment to fly out next Thursday from Manchester and by the looks of it the worst should of passed by then but you just never know your luck.

Hightide

[floridadreamvilla.co.uk]

They would be looking at the official forcasts from the National Hurricane Center and in particular forcast windspeeds and the possibility of storm cells in the arrea.
<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by hightide
Does anybody know what the airports base there decision to close on (such as path, wind speed etc.) We are ment to fly out next Thursday from Manchester and by the looks of it the worst should of passed by then but you just never know your luck.

Hightide
[/quote]

[Wazz]

we were due to go sunday but have been panicking for the last 2 days.

well woke up this morning and after much deliberation decided to postpone for 2 weeks.i still believe ivan will miss but with everyone buying up supplies and gas thought it better to wait a bit.

i hope anyone who still goes stays safe and that it all goes away and i can't wait for sept 25th now.

[floridadreamvilla.co.uk]

The latest (just out):

http://www.orlando-guide.info/forums/Data/floridadreamvilla.co.uk/200491016164_101508W5.gif

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
IVAN DOES NOT APPEAR AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES AND WELL-ESTABLISHED
OUTFLOW. YOU CAN SEE THE CONVECTIVE RING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EYEWALL ON HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES. SUPER RAPID SCAN IR
IMAGES SHOW THE VERY STRONG CONVECTIVE RING CURRENTLY RE-DEVELOPING
AROUND THE EYE. DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
SURFACE PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 934 MB BUT THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN AT 144 KNOTS. THIS SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125
KNOTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BEFORE IVAN MOVES
NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA WHERE THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN MAY
WEAKEN THE HURRICANE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IVAN WILL RE-STRENGTHEN
SOME BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA WHERE THE OCEAN IS QUITE
WARM. ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE AND IVAN SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN. IVAN IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE UNTIL IT REACHES THE UNITED STATES.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT
10 KNOTS...STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS. AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS...THE STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD WEAKEN TOO...AND
THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS STILL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT...IT BECOMES
UNCERTAIN AFTER THE HURRICANE CROSSES CUBA WHEN GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT
THE HURRICANE COULD CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO OR COULD TURN
NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER FLORIDA. IN FACT...THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT FAVOR ONE
SCENARIO MORE THAN THE OTHER...AND BRINGS THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO VERY NEAR AND EVENTUALLY OVER FLORIDA.

[domster]

The last few lines of that long winded report says it all.

They have'nt really got a clue!

DOM

[chrizzy100]

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by domster
The last few lines of that long winded report says it all.

They have'nt really got a clue!

DOM
[/quote]

This storms been different from the start.....I think they are doing the best they can.....:)

[wilfy]

Dom,
i happen to know what sort of computing power that one of these modelling teams use, and it is huge. But even dum-de-dum computers running at stonkin-hertz, can only compute on what it's told. They just don't have enough resources to measure everything. Having said that, most of the modelling s/w is pretty accurate upto 48 hours.

[Snapper]

Indeed so. I think weather forecasting, simulating nuclear explosions, drug discovery and working out where to find oil are amongst the world's most intensive computing applications. As well as running the OV forums.

I read some years ago that there are better weather forecasting models but there still insn't the computing power to run them. The experts know that they are better because they produce the right results. They know that the results are right because they are produced 2 days after the time they are supposed to be forecasting.

I think the forecasters have done a sterling job so far this year. If you watch the animated archive on the NOAA site the storms do very closely follow the forecast track; especially within the 'next 2 days' time.

It isn't very often that one hears the forecasters talk specifically about the computer models so this one must have them really flummoxed.

[Nostromo]

I saw people boarding up their homes in Jamaica on this evening news in preparation for Ivan the Terrible. I hope that the Orlando villas are not hit too hard. They have suffered enough as it is from Charley and Frances.

[Carla]

Pray for Jamaica. Whatever Florida gets, if it gets anything at all from Ivan, will be so much less than anything that the Jamaicans will have to cope with.

[floridadreamvilla.co.uk]

Just out:

http://www.orlando-guide.info/forums/Data/floridadreamvilla.co.uk/2004910214544_102038W5.gif

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE INTENSITY OR TRACK OF
IVAN TODAY. THE HURRICANE HAS A DISTINCT EYE WITHIN A LARGE CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST AND PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES. THE OUTFLOW REMAINS
WELL ESTABLISHED PRIMARILY TO THE WEST. THE PRESSURE HAS BEEN
OSCILLATING DURING THE DAY AND THE LAST READING FROM A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 937 MB. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO
120 KNOTS BASED ON WIND DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BEFORE IVAN MOVES NEAR OR OVER
JAMAICA WHERE THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN MAY WEAKEN THE
HURRICANE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IVAN WILL RE-STRENGTHEN SOME BETWEEN
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA WHERE THERE IS A VERY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. ONCE IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND IVAN SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER...IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS
HURRICANE UNTIL IT REACHES THE UNITED STATES.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT
11 KNOTS STEERED BY A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
BAHAMAS. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS...AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN AFTER
THE HURRICANE CROSSES CUBA. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE BECOMING IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COULD HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD DUE
TO THE NEW GUIDANCE...IT IS NOT PRUDENT TO MAKE A CHANGE AT THIS
TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOW BASICALLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND KEEPS THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK
VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

[mrsbabypowder]

we haven't taken the plywood down from Frances yet, and looking around Crescent Lakes this morning, there are alot of houses with boardings still up. we were without power for 4 days with charley, so i queued for 4 hours in home depot for the very last generator. we were without power for 4 hours with Frances, so i am hoping that as it looks like it is running in 4's with me, that i will be without power for 4 minutes. But i am praying that we can have a break from these hurricanes, and get back to what i like doing. SUNBATHING!!!!!!!!!!:D

[Floridalover]

I just got back from New York this evening and the weather there was terrible on Wednesday, frances was about and the wind and rain ()they got a months worth of rain in a day) was bad. Just goes to show how powerful a storm Frances was.

Chrizzy, you must have gotten Frances's weather too ?

[chrizzy100]

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by Floridalover
I just got back from New York this evening and the weather there was terrible on Wednesday, frances was about and the wind and rain ()they got a months worth of rain in a day) was bad. Just goes to show how powerful a storm Frances was.

Chrizzy, you must have gotten Frances's weather too ?

[/quote]

No we were to far out to sea........we've had no rain all week......its be very humid here......its the most I've had on my A/C this year.........they told us we would get a few inches of rain but it never got here in the end......

[Floridalover]

Really ? Wow I'm surprised you never got that. she must have moved away to sea. It was extremly humid in NYC too. Not pleasant. I flew over the cape and it was very cloudy this morning.

[Floridalover]

Latest NOAA discussion.....this could be good news for us

HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004

A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY FLYING IN THE
HURRICANE. THE CENTRAL PRESSUURE IS 924 MB AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS
SUPPORT 125 KT SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER THE HURRICANE IS UNDERGOING
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND MAY SOON BE INTENSIFYING AND THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 130 KT. WITH LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR AND
WARM SSTS...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGHENING FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IVAN THREATENS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THEN CUBA.

THE EYE TOOK A WESTWARD WOBBLE OVERNIGHT AND REMAINED FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH OF JAMAICA SO THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE
REMAINED OFFSHORE. NEVERTHELESS...JAMAICA EXPERIENCED HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS AND IS STILL DOING SO.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SAME FORECAST SCENARIO OF A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RUNS OF THE FOUR GLOBAL TRACK GUIDANCE
MODELS...GFS...GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS...ALL SHIFTED THEIR TRACK A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT. SOME OR ALL OF THE SHIFT COULD BE DUE TO THE
SHORT TERM WESTWARD WOBBLE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL TO THE
RIGHT OR EAST OF ALL THE MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN IS CLOSER
TO A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AFTER 48 HOURS. THE GUIDANCE MODELS
INDICATE A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND SO
DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

[Floridalover]

http://www.orlando-guide.info/forums/Data/floridalover/2004911103854_Ivantrack5amupdate11sep.gif

[wilfy]

Ivan threw a wobbly last night! The eye passed just south of Jamaica, and the current track put's it further to the west

[Carla]

I am so delighted for Jamaica - they must have passed a dreadful night wondering what it would do.

[blott]

Good, it looks as if it's going in a better direction at last!

[nic3]

Ivan has actually hit jamaica, about 10 minutes ago. Its just been on the news that extensive damage has already been caused.

People are shooting at looters as they try to protect their homes, instead of evacuating!!x

[Jill]

If you watch BBC news the eye is going over Jamaica, if you watch ITV the eye is to the west of Jamaica.

[JLBEEKEN]

The eye did wobble to the south last night sparing Jamaica the eye.It is passing just to the southwest. However, they are still getting very, very high winds and rains. Roads are washing away and etc. Having been to Jamaica before I can only imagine the damage. Most of these people live in shacks.I hope we hear some good news from Jamaica
today.

[Snapper]

The computer forecast models are starting to get a bit more consistent, but the National Hurricane Center are still warning that Ivan's track could still change over the coming 48 hours.



http://www.orlando-guide.info/forums/Data/steveharrison/2004911134652_09-11-04-Ivan-ComputerModels.gif

[chrisj]

So from that it looks that Florida might be spared the worse of it this time round, mid you it still
has a long way to go

[Snapper]

Hopefully Chris.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed (again!).

[Beverley]

Info from www.orlandoweather.com

'Forecasters say they expect Ivan to shift back to its original course, but they say the move west could put it on a path that will miss Florida as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico.'

[Carla]

Orlandoweather is full of a lot of speculation, majority of it unfounded, but it is more news-worthy from their point of view. [}:)][}:)][}:)]

[chrisj]

Suppose its a case of keep the news on and see what happens

[chrizzy100]

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by Carla
Orlandoweather is full of a lot of speculation, majority of it unfounded, but it is more news-worthy from their point of view. [}:)][}:)][}:)]
[/quote]

I think the news papers have been hoping for the storm to hit central FL again... the same track as Charleys was in the paper and online way to long........they had all three tracks crossing for days......I bet the newspaper people are out at sea now trying to blow Ivan back onto an inland course......:(

[Beverley]

The report said that IVAN would MISS Florida

[Snapper]

It looks to be moving further west. Fingers still crossed.



http://www.orlando-guide.info/forums/Data/steveharrison/2004911203128_09-11-04-a-Ivan-ComputerModels.gif

[Cruella DeVilla]

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by chrizzy100
<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by Carla
Orlandoweather is full of a lot of speculation, majority of it unfounded, but it is more news-worthy from their point of view. [}:)][}:)][}:)]
[/quote]

I think the news papers have been hoping for the storm to hit central FL again... the same track as Charleys was in the paper and online way to long........they had all three tracks crossing for days......I bet the newspaper people are out at sea now trying to blow Ivan back onto an inland course......:(
[/quote]

Chrizzy,
Kind of agree with you there, we were having that same discussion recently, the media just love a good story no matter what the circumstances are.

[floridadreamvilla.co.uk]

The latest:

http://www.orlando-guide.info/forums/Data/floridadreamvilla.co.uk/2004911215757_112048W5.gif

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME GRADUAL CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN OVER
THE LAST DAY OR SO WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE HURRICANE MOVING ON A
TRACK NOT AS CLOSE TO SOUTH FLORIDA. WHILE THIS MAY BE GOOD NEWS
FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...IT IS NOT SO FOR OTHER REGIONS OF THE EASTERN
GULF COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE MID TO UPPER-LEVELS HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS RIDGE HAS BEEN
FORCING THE HURRICANE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK...DELAYING THE
EXPECTED NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD TURN. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHWARD TURN
IS STILL FORECAST TO OCCUR AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...IT IS NOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA AND
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TRACK INCREASES
THE HURRICANE RISK FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO REGION AND
DECREASES IT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REMAINS IN AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN
SHIFTING GRADUALLY WESTWARD.

AS WAS THOUGHT POSSIBLE...IVAN HAS REGAINED CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH.
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 161 KNOTS AT 700 MB AND AN
EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE OF 914 MB. THE DROP MEASURED 918 MB BUT IT
HAD 29 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 145 KNOTS. THERE ARE NO SKILLS IN PREDICTING CHANGES IN
INTENSITY WITH SUCH EXTREMELY INTENSE HURRICANES...SO IVAN IS KEPT
AT 145 KNOTS UNTIL LANDFALL IN CUBA. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE...SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED.
NEVERTHERLESS... IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UNITES STATES AS A
MAJOR HURRICANE.

[chrizzy100]

I'm feeling a bit happier that my first few posts were on the right track..... SC/
NC or TX/AL .....

I've been storm watching for years now.....I will not be happy if this one gets the better of me........





[msncry][msncry]

[chrizzy100]

Ivan is now a rare cat 5 with wind speeds of 165 miles an hour......the news on yahoo still has it taking the same track as Charley through FL..are they getting different track reports than us......???

[esprit]

" I think the news papers have been hoping for the storm to hit central FL again... the same track as Charleys was in the paper and online way to long........they had all three tracks crossing for days

You could be right Chrizzy. There has been a lot of hype here about it. The TV news just showed a projected track "funnel" and we were just at the right edge of it and then it went over the west coast and way out to sea and they said "anywhere in this". But I guess after being wrong with Charley and evacuating the wrong people, they are edging their bets.

[chrizzy100]

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by esprit
" I think the news papers have been hoping for the storm to hit central FL again... the same track as Charleys was in the paper and online way to long........they had all three tracks crossing for days

You could be right Chrizzy. There has been a lot of hype here about it. The TV news just showed a projected track "funnel" and we were just at the right edge of it and then it went over the west coast and way out to sea and they said "anywhere in this". But I guess after being wrong with Charley and evacuating the wrong people, they are edging their bets.
[/quote]

It is understandable in one way.....but it worries a lot of people if the news is not up dated......the new track looks good for central FL......

[esprit]

It does indeed...but not if you live in the Panhandle or Georgia.

[chrizzy100]

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by esprit
It does indeed...but not if you live in the Panhandle or Georgia.
[/quote]

I know....you don't want to wish it anywhere.......but central FL needs a break.....lucky enough there are no new storms anywhere right now.....so thats more good news for everyone.........

[Snapper]

The latest forecast from the national hurricane center:


http://www.orlando-guide.info/forums/Data/steveharrison/2004912123335_09-12-04-5am-Ivan-120853W5.gif

000
WTNT44 KNHC 120933
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004

...CORRECTION...48 AND 72 HOUR POSITIONS ARE OVER WATER....

AN AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY IN THE HURRICANE. THE LATEST
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 918 MB AND THE HIGHEST 700-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND
SPEED IS 140 KT AT A POSTION 12 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 135 KT ON THE BASIS OF THE ABOVE.
THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS A SECONDARY WIND MAXIMUM 27 N MI FROM THE
CENTER WHICH COULD BE THE START OF ANOTHER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE. THEREFORE THE WIND SPEED IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 145 KT
AT 12 AND 24 HOURS. INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR IS INDICATED BY THE
SHIPS MODEL AS IVAN MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOME
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER IVAN MOVES NORTH OF CUBA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/8. THE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
CLOSELY CLUSTERED ABOUT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IVAN MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY TO THE EAST OF
FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE MODELS.

REPEATING THE REMINDER FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BEAR IN MIND
THAT 3-4 DAY TRACK FORECASTS ARE FAR FROM EXACT...SO THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST WHEN AND WHERE IVAN WILL MAKE
LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES. AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE EVEN
LESS CERTAIN.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

[CarolAnn]

So agree with you Chrizzy100:)Don't wish it on anyone but poor folks in Central Fl do need a break:(Wish it would divert out to sea:)

[bellaepovera]

I never heard of a hurricane going downwards to the south!! That would be a first. Fingers crossed for us all.

[jolliffee]

Time will tell on this one..

[MaggieAllan]

Just been catching up with the news on Ivan - looks like the Bermuda high and another front coming from land are doing a good job ( albeit still very dangerous )

Not wanting to appear to be making light of a terrible situation for everyone affected so far and possibly in the future but..

Whilst hunting around I had to smile at the message board on Sentinal website - see humour comments, and the one about a Jacksonville man wanting to send a plane up to get rid of Ivan all together.

Please read them before condemning me first - if the locals can make light of it, good luck to them.

Back to ironing- see you later
Maggie

[traceydeb]

Just been looking at CNN.com on the net and it says Ivan may hit the Florida Panhandle. Where about is it.

Tracey

[chrizzy100]

<blockquote id="quote" class="ffs">quote:Originally posted by traceydeb
Just been looking at CNN.com on the net and it says Ivan may hit the Florida Panhandle. Where about is it.

Tracey
[/quote]


Its the bit along the top that leads to the mainland....on the shoreline........its just a small strip of land.......between the sea and the next state.......

[Ray&Sarah]

Its looking much better for the most of Florida, thankfully, think they have had more that their fair share this year. Having said that wouldn't wich this hurricane on anyone.

[CarolAnn]

We musn't forget those living there have been through a lot, and some advertisers on these sites have also taken a blow:(but it is certainly looking much brighter at the moment thankfully, as Ray&Sarah said, they have had their fair share in that region now[msncry]

[mrsbabypowder]

we are just expecting showers and wind gusts upto 20mph. so thank goodness for central florida, and i hope that the panhandle do not suffer as bad as andrew (which they're saying they might) everyone is being evacuated on the news.

[Phil and Mel]

As everyone is saying, looks like it should miss Central Florida.

http://images.ibsys.com/sh/images/weather/auto/at200409_5day.gif

[jolliffee]

Ok everyone you can breath out now! Ivan has past Central Florida[msnsmile2]