Quote Originally Posted by Katys Grandad View Post

That doesn't really match my experience although I agree it's all down to timing and luck with flight prices.

I think the perceived wisdom on this is that you should determine what price you're comfortable paying based on past fares and budget and buy when that comes up, That might be when they're released, during the sales that occur throughout the year or at the last minute. Of course, you have to be realistic about fares and be ready to jump in at short notice.
I agree. Unless you have access to all the yield management systems the airline has, you won't ever be able to predict their fares, and you'll drive yourself crazy trying to do so. As KG says, pick a price you want to pay, and if the fares hit that price, buy them. And then stop looking to see if they get any cheaper :-)

But do check non direct flights if you're looking for the best prices